Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
18.3
Troy
33.3
Troy win probability: 83%
Margin (Troy − UL Monroe): 15.0 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 9.6 | 46.2 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:55 PM | 9.7 | 46.3 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:50 PM | 9.7 | 46.3 | 74% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:02 AM | 9.6 | 46.3 | 74% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:03 PM | 9.7 | 46.3 | 74% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:12 PM | 9.9 | 46.7 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:41 PM | 9.1 | 49.9 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:33 PM | 9.0 | 49.7 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:24 PM | 9.0 | 49.7 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:45 AM | 9.4 | 49.8 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:06 PM | 9.4 | 49.8 | 73% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:53 PM | 13.1 | 48.8 | 80% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:48 PM | 14.0 | 49.5 | 82% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:20 PM | 14.0 | 52.5 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:04 PM | 15.0 | 51.6 | 83% |