Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
18.3
Troy
28.0
Troy win probability: 74%
Margin (Troy − UL Monroe): 9.7 (80% range -10 to 28)
Total: 46.3 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 9.6 | 46.2 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:55 PM | 9.7 | 46.3 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:50 PM | 9.7 | 46.3 | 74% |