2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Georgia Southern @ Troy
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia Southern
27.7
Troy
26.7
Troy win probability: 47%
Margin (Troy − Georgia Southern): -1.0 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:55 PM | 3.3 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:50 PM | 3.4 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:33 PM | 3.4 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:45 AM | 3.4 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:47 PM | 3.5 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:59 PM | 3.4 | 52.8 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:57 PM | 0.9 | 54.4 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:53 PM | -1.1 | 49.7 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:34 PM | -1.1 | 49.7 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:50 PM | -0.6 | 49.7 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:02 PM | -0.6 | 49.7 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:11 PM | 2.3 | 49.9 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:25 PM | 2.7 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:26 PM | 1.2 | 53.5 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:31 PM | -1.0 | 54.4 | 47% |