2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Troy @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreLean
Troy
27.0
South Alabama
31.1
South Alabama win probability: 60%
Margin (South Alabama − Troy): 4.1 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:36 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:31 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:35 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:26 AM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:19 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:17 PM | 1.8 | 50.7 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:59 PM | 4.4 | 52.9 | 61% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:06 PM | 6.3 | 54.4 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:43 PM | 6.3 | 54.4 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:14 PM | 6.7 | 54.4 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:40 PM | 6.7 | 54.4 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:32 PM | 3.0 | 52.4 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:55 PM | 1.8 | 52.6 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:00 PM | 1.3 | 57.7 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:07 PM | 4.1 | 58.1 | 60% |