2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Troy @ South Alabama
Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
24.3
South Alabama
26.2
South Alabama win probability: 55%
Margin (South Alabama − Troy): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:36 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:31 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:35 PM | 1.9 | 50.6 | 55% |