Troy
Sun Belt
2024 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2024
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Nevada | 28–26 | 15.9–36.4 | 22.5 |
| Week 2 | @ Memphis | 38–17 | 32.3–26.2 | 14.9 |
| Week 3 | @ Iowa | 38–21 | 27.4–19.4 | 9.1 |
| Week 5 | vs UL Monroe | 13–9 | 17.2–29.0 | 15.8 |
| Week 6 | vs Texas State | 38–17 | 28.1–28.7 | 21.6 |
| Week 8 | @ South Alabama | 25–9 | 27.6–25.6 | 14.1 |
| Week 9 | @ Arkansas State | 34–31 | 26.9–30.1 | 6.3 |
| Week 10 | vs Coastal Carolina | 24–38 | 20.5–27.2 | 7.4 |
| Week 12 | @ Georgia Southern | 20–28 | 26.2–25.2 | 8.9 |
| Week 13 | @ Louisiana | 51–30 | 28.7–23.9 | 16.2 |
| Week 14 | vs Southern Miss | 20–52 | 18.2–33.8 | 16.4 |