2024 Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Nevada @ Troy

Predicted scoreConfident

Nevada

15.9

Troy

36.4

Troy win probability: 91%

Margin (Troy − Nevada): 20.5 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Nevada 28 – Troy 26 (margin error 22.5, total error 1.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.