2024 Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

UL Monroe @ Troy

Predicted scoreLikely

UL Monroe

17.2

Troy

29.0

Troy win probability: 78%

Margin (Troy − UL Monroe): 11.8 (80% range -7 to 31)

Total: 46.3 (80% range 24 to 69)

Actual: UL Monroe 13 – Troy 9 (margin error 15.8, total error 24.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.