Predicted scoreLean
Troy
19.4
Iowa
27.4
Iowa win probability: 70%
Margin (Iowa − Troy): 7.9 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 46.8 (80% range 26 to 69)
Actual: Troy 21 – Iowa 38 (margin error 9.1, total error 12.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.96% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.