2024 Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024, 7:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Southern Miss @ Troy

Predicted scoreLikely

Southern Miss

18.2

Troy

33.8

Troy win probability: 84%

Margin (Troy − Southern Miss): 15.6 (80% range -4 to 35)

Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Southern Miss 20 – Troy 52 (margin error 16.4, total error 19.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.