Predicted scoreLean
Troy
23.9
Louisiana
28.7
Louisiana win probability: 62%
Margin (Louisiana − Troy): 4.8 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Troy 30 – Louisiana 51 (margin error 16.2, total error 28.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.