2024 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024, 11:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Troy @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Troy

30.1

Arkansas State

26.9

Arkansas State win probability: 42%

Margin (Arkansas State − Troy): -3.3 (80% range -24 to 17)

Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Troy 31 – Arkansas State 34 (margin error 6.3, total error 8.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.