2024 Week 6 · Oct 3, 2024, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Texas State @ Troy

Predicted scoreToss-up

Texas State

28.1

Troy

28.7

Troy win probability: 52%

Margin (Troy − Texas State): 0.6 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Texas State 38 – Troy 17 (margin error 21.6, total error 1.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.