2024 Week 8 · Oct 15, 2024, 11:30 PM · Hancock Whitney Stadium

Troy @ South Alabama

Predicted scoreToss-up

Troy

25.6

South Alabama

27.6

South Alabama win probability: 55%

Margin (South Alabama − Troy): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)

Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 78)

Actual: Troy 9 – South Alabama 25 (margin error 14.1, total error 19.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.