Predicted scoreConfident
Troy
11.6
Missouri
37.2
Missouri win probability: 96%
Margin (Missouri − Troy): 25.6 (80% range 7 to 45)
Total: 48.8 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Troy 17 – Missouri 27 (margin error 15.6, total error 4.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.98% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.90% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.88% |
| 3 | 31 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:36 PM | 16.9 | 48.4 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:38 PM | 16.8 | 48.4 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:04 PM | 16.9 | 48.4 | 87% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:12 AM | 16.9 | 48.4 | 87% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:17 PM | 17.4 | 48.3 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:22 PM | 17.0 | 48.4 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:36 PM | 24.2 | 49.4 | 95% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:19 PM | 25.6 | 48.8 | 96% |