Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
23.1
Louisiana
26.0
Louisiana win probability: 57%
Margin (Louisiana − Troy): 2.9 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Troy 6 – Louisiana 33 (margin error 24.1, total error 10.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:32 PM | 1.8 | 47.5 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:41 PM | 1.8 | 47.5 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:52 PM | 1.8 | 47.6 | 55% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:28 AM | 1.8 | 47.6 | 55% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:53 PM | 1.9 | 47.6 | 55% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:01 PM | 2.1 | 47.2 | 55% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:24 PM | 3.6 | 49.0 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:11 PM | 6.3 | 49.9 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:43 PM | 6.3 | 49.9 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:13 AM | 6.6 | 49.9 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:26 PM | 6.6 | 49.9 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:16 PM | 5.0 | 44.3 | 63% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:33 PM | 3.9 | 44.9 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:32 PM | 2.9 | 49.0 | 57% |