Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
22.9
Louisiana
24.7
Louisiana win probability: 55%
Margin (Louisiana − Troy): 1.8 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 47.6 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:32 PM | 1.8 | 47.5 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:41 PM | 1.8 | 47.5 | 55% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:52 PM | 1.8 | 47.6 | 55% |