2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 11:30 PM · Maverik Stadium
Troy @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLikely
Troy
19.4
Utah State
34.2
Utah State win probability: 82%
Margin (Utah State − Troy): 14.8 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Troy 10 – Utah State 21 (margin error 3.8, total error 22.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | 9.5 | 53.2 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | 9.5 | 53.2 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:13 PM | 9.4 | 53.1 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:07 AM | 9.4 | 53.3 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:51 PM | 9.5 | 52.9 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:22 PM | 8.2 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:20 PM | 12.7 | 54.5 | 79% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:48 PM | 14.9 | 53.5 | 82% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:56 PM | 14.8 | 53.6 | 82% |