2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 11:30 PM · Maverik Stadium
Troy @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLikely
Troy
21.8
Utah State
31.3
Utah State win probability: 72%
Margin (Utah State − Troy): 9.4 (80% range -11 to 30)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | 9.5 | 53.2 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | 9.5 | 53.2 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:13 PM | 9.4 | 53.1 | 72% |