2026 Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Sam Houston @ Troy
Predicted scoreLikely
Sam Houston
17.6
Troy
31.9
Troy win probability: 82%
Margin (Troy − Sam Houston): 14.3 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 49.5 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:16 PM | 14.4 | 49.3 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:18 PM | 14.3 | 49.3 | 82% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:26:08 PM | 14.3 | 49.5 | 82% |