2023 Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023, 4:00 PM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Troy @ Kansas State

Predicted scoreConfident

Troy

16.4

Kansas State

33.9

Kansas State win probability: 87%

Margin (Kansas State − Troy): 17.5 (80% range -3 to 38)

Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 73)

Actual: Troy 13 – Kansas State 42 (margin error 11.5, total error 4.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.