2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 8:30 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Louisiana @ Troy

Predicted scoreLikely

Louisiana

20.0

Troy

30.3

Troy win probability: 75%

Margin (Troy − Louisiana): 10.3 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)

Actual: Louisiana 24 – Troy 31 (margin error 3.3, total error 4.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.