2023 Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023, 9:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

App State @ Troy

Predicted scoreLean

App State

23.6

Troy

30.6

Troy win probability: 67%

Margin (Troy − App State): 7.0 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: App State 23 – Troy 49 (margin error 19.0, total error 17.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.