2023 Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

James Madison @ Troy

Predicted scoreToss-up

James Madison

27.0

Troy

27.1

Troy win probability: 50%

Margin (Troy − James Madison): 0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: James Madison 16 – Troy 14 (margin error 2.0, total error 24.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.