2023 Week 10 · Nov 2, 2023, 11:30 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

South Alabama @ Troy

Predicted scoreToss-up

South Alabama

24.0

Troy

23.4

Troy win probability: 49%

Margin (Troy − South Alabama): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 19)

Total: 47.4 (80% range 27 to 70)

Actual: South Alabama 10 – Troy 28 (margin error 18.5, total error 9.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.