2023 Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Arkansas State @ Troy

Predicted scoreConfident

Arkansas State

18.2

Troy

38.3

Troy win probability: 89%

Margin (Troy − Arkansas State): 20.1 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 56.5 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Arkansas State 3 – Troy 37 (margin error 13.9, total error 16.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.