Predicted scoreLean
Troy
29.3
UL Monroe
21.9
UL Monroe win probability: 32%
Margin (UL Monroe − Troy): -7.4 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Troy 37 – UL Monroe 14 (margin error 15.6, total error 0.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.