2025 Week 10 · Nov 2, 2025, 12:00 AM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Arkansas State @ Troy

Predicted scoreLean

Arkansas State

23.1

Troy

31.4

Troy win probability: 70%

Margin (Troy − Arkansas State): 8.3 (80% range -12 to 28)

Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Arkansas State 23 – Troy 10 (margin error 21.3, total error 21.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.