2025 Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025, 8:30 PM · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Troy @ Southern Miss

Predicted scoreToss-up

Troy

25.1

Southern Miss

24.0

Southern Miss win probability: 47%

Margin (Southern Miss − Troy): -1.1 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 73)

Actual: Troy 28 – Southern Miss 18 (margin error 8.9, total error 3.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.