2025 Postseason · Dec 17, 2025, 2:00 AM · Cramton Bowl (neutral site)

Troy @ Jacksonville State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Troy

27.7

Jacksonville State

27.3

Jacksonville State win probability: 49%

Margin (Jacksonville State − Troy): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Troy 13 – Jacksonville State 17 (margin error 4.4, total error 25.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.