2025 Week 12 · Nov 14, 2025, 12:30 AM · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Troy @ Old Dominion
Predicted scoreLikely
Troy
19.7
Old Dominion
28.0
Old Dominion win probability: 71%
Margin (Old Dominion − Troy): 8.3 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 47.7 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: Troy 0 – Old Dominion 33 (margin error 24.7, total error 14.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.