2025 Week 15 · Dec 6, 2025, 12:00 AM · Bridgeforth Stadium
Troy @ James Madison
Predicted scoreConfident
Troy
15.0
James Madison
32.3
James Madison win probability: 87%
Margin (James Madison − Troy): 17.3 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 47.3 (80% range 27 to 70)
Actual: Troy 14 – James Madison 31 (margin error 0.3, total error 2.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.87% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.85% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.81% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.