2025 Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Louisiana @ Troy

Predicted scoreLean

Louisiana

22.3

Troy

26.3

Troy win probability: 60%

Margin (Troy − Louisiana): 4.1 (80% range -15 to 24)

Total: 48.6 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Louisiana 23 – Troy 35 (margin error 7.9, total error 9.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.