Predicted scoreToss-up
Troy
26.5
Buffalo
22.7
Buffalo win probability: 40%
Margin (Buffalo − Troy): -3.8 (80% range -24 to 16)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Troy 21 – Buffalo 17 (margin error 0.2, total error 11.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.