2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 9:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Georgia State @ Troy

Predicted scoreLean

Georgia State

23.0

Troy

29.0

Troy win probability: 65%

Margin (Troy − Georgia State): 6.0 (80% range -14 to 27)

Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Georgia State 19 – Troy 31 (margin error 6.0, total error 2.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.