2025 Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025, 11:00 PM · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

South Alabama @ Troy

Predicted scoreToss-up

South Alabama

27.2

Troy

24.9

Troy win probability: 44%

Margin (Troy − South Alabama): -2.3 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 52.2 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: South Alabama 24 – Troy 31 (margin error 9.3, total error 2.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.