Liberty
Conference USA
2023 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2023
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bowling Green | 24–34 | 17.5–32.8 | 5.3 |
| Week 2 | vs New Mexico State | 17–33 | 18.9–36.7 | 1.7 |
| Week 3 | @ Buffalo | 27–55 | 25.9–25.9 | 28.0 |
| Week 4 | @ Florida International | 6–38 | 18.8–34.1 | 16.7 |
| Week 6 | vs Sam Houston | 16–21 | 17.5–27.6 | 5.1 |
| Week 7 | @ Jacksonville State | 13–31 | 26.3–27.6 | 16.6 |
| Week 8 | vs Middle Tennessee | 35–42 | 23.9–32.9 | 2.0 |
| Week 9 | @ Western Kentucky | 29–42 | 27.7–27.2 | 13.4 |
| Week 10 | vs Louisiana Tech | 30–56 | 22.1–34.9 | 13.1 |
| Week 11 | vs Old Dominion | 10–38 | 24.7–32.0 | 20.8 |
| Week 12 | vs Massachusetts | 25–49 | 18.0–40.0 | 2.1 |
| Week 13 | @ UTEP | 28–42 | 23.2–33.5 | 3.7 |
| Week 14 | vs New Mexico State | 35–49 | 25.3–35.3 | 4.0 |
| Week 1 | @ Oregon | 45–6 | 35.0–20.9 | 24.9 |