Liberty
Conference USA
2025 rating history
Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.
Past prediction accuracy — 2025
| Week | Opponent | Actual | Predicted | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | @ Jacksonville State | 34–24 | 28.5–25.0 | 6.5 |
| Week 3 | @ Bowling Green | 23–13 | 26.6–28.7 | 12.1 |
| Week 4 | vs James Madison | 31–13 | 29.1–23.4 | 12.4 |
| Week 5 | @ Old Dominion | 21–7 | 33.3–19.8 | 0.5 |
| Week 7 | @ UTEP | 8–19 | 20.9–23.0 | 8.9 |
| Week 8 | vs New Mexico State | 27–30 | 22.4–32.4 | 7.0 |
| Week 10 | vs Delaware | 30–59 | 25.7–24.9 | 29.8 |
| Week 11 | vs Missouri State | 21–17 | 24.3–27.0 | 6.7 |
| Week 12 | @ Florida International | 34–27 | 24.6–26.6 | 8.9 |
| Week 13 | @ Louisiana Tech | 34–28 | 27.2–23.5 | 2.2 |
| Week 14 | vs Kennesaw State | 48–42 | 27.1–27.5 | 6.4 |