2025 Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025, 9:00 PM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Liberty @ Bowling Green

Predicted scoreToss-up

Liberty

28.7

Bowling Green

26.6

Bowling Green win probability: 45%

Margin (Bowling Green − Liberty): -2.1 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 55.4 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Liberty 13 – Bowling Green 23 (margin error 12.1, total error 19.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.