2025 Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025, 7:30 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

James Madison @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLean

James Madison

29.1

Liberty

23.4

Liberty win probability: 36%

Margin (Liberty − James Madison): -5.6 (80% range -26 to 14)

Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: James Madison 31 – Liberty 13 (margin error 12.4, total error 8.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.