2025 Week 13 · Nov 22, 2025, 8:00 PM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreToss-up
Liberty
23.5
Louisiana Tech
27.2
Louisiana Tech win probability: 59%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Liberty): 3.8 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Liberty 28 – Louisiana Tech 34 (margin error 2.2, total error 11.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 21 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.