2025 Week 8 · Oct 14, 2025, 11:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

New Mexico State @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

22.4

Liberty

32.4

Liberty win probability: 73%

Margin (Liberty − New Mexico State): 10.0 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: New Mexico State 27 – Liberty 30 (margin error 7.0, total error 2.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.