2025 Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025, 10:00 PM · S.B. Ballard Stadium

Liberty @ Old Dominion

Predicted scoreLikely

Liberty

19.8

Old Dominion

33.3

Old Dominion win probability: 81%

Margin (Old Dominion − Liberty): 13.5 (80% range -7 to 35)

Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 77)

Actual: Liberty 7 – Old Dominion 21 (margin error 0.5, total error 25.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.