2025 Week 11 · Nov 8, 2025, 6:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

Missouri State @ Liberty

Predicted scoreToss-up

Missouri State

24.3

Liberty

27.0

Liberty win probability: 57%

Margin (Liberty − Missouri State): 2.7 (80% range -17 to 22)

Total: 51.3 (80% range 28 to 76)

Actual: Missouri State 21 – Liberty 17 (margin error 6.7, total error 13.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.