2025 Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025, 4:00 PM · AmFirst Stadium
Liberty @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Liberty
25.0
Jacksonville State
28.5
Jacksonville State win probability: 59%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Liberty): 3.5 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 30 to 79)
Actual: Liberty 24 – Jacksonville State 34 (margin error 6.5, total error 4.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.