2023 Week 9 · Oct 24, 2023, 11:30 PM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Liberty @ Western Kentucky

Predicted scoreToss-up

Liberty

27.2

Western Kentucky

27.7

Western Kentucky win probability: 51%

Margin (Western Kentucky − Liberty): 0.4 (80% range -20 to 21)

Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Liberty 42 – Western Kentucky 29 (margin error 13.4, total error 16.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.