2023 Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023, 10:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

New Mexico State @ Liberty

Predicted scoreConfident

New Mexico State

18.9

Liberty

36.7

Liberty win probability: 86%

Margin (Liberty − New Mexico State): 17.7 (80% range -3 to 39)

Total: 55.6 (80% range 32 to 80)

Actual: New Mexico State 17 – Liberty 33 (margin error 1.7, total error 5.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.