2023 Week 8 · Oct 17, 2023, 11:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

Middle Tennessee @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLikely

Middle Tennessee

23.9

Liberty

32.9

Liberty win probability: 71%

Margin (Liberty − Middle Tennessee): 9.0 (80% range -11 to 31)

Total: 56.7 (80% range 34 to 82)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 35 – Liberty 42 (margin error 2.0, total error 20.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.