2023 Week 6 · Oct 5, 2023, 11:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

Sam Houston @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLikely

Sam Houston

17.5

Liberty

27.6

Liberty win probability: 75%

Margin (Liberty − Sam Houston): 10.1 (80% range -10 to 30)

Total: 45.0 (80% range 24 to 68)

Actual: Sam Houston 16 – Liberty 21 (margin error 5.1, total error 8.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.