2023 Week 14 · Dec 2, 2023, 12:00 AM · Williams Stadium (VA)

New Mexico State @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLikely

New Mexico State

25.3

Liberty

35.3

Liberty win probability: 73%

Margin (Liberty − New Mexico State): 10.0 (80% range -11 to 31)

Total: 60.6 (80% range 36 to 87)

Actual: New Mexico State 35 – Liberty 49 (margin error 4.0, total error 23.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.