2023 Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023, 10:30 PM · FIU Stadium
Liberty @ Florida International
Predicted scoreLikely
Liberty
34.1
Florida International
18.8
Florida International win probability: 17%
Margin (Florida International − Liberty): -15.3 (80% range -35 to 4)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Liberty 38 – Florida International 6 (margin error 16.7, total error 8.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.65% |
| 35 | 14 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.