2023 Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023, 4:00 PM · Williams Stadium (VA)

Bowling Green @ Liberty

Predicted scoreLikely

Bowling Green

17.5

Liberty

32.8

Liberty win probability: 83%

Margin (Liberty − Bowling Green): 15.3 (80% range -4 to 35)

Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)

Actual: Bowling Green 24 – Liberty 34 (margin error 5.3, total error 7.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.