Nevada

Mountain West

2026 rating history

Point-in-time, recency-weighted opponent-adjusted efficiency — recomputed each week from strictly-prior games only.

Upcoming forecasts

Week	Opponent	Predicted score	Win prob
Week 8	vs San José State	22.5–26.7	61%
Week 9	@ UCLA	33.3–15.9	13%
Week 10	vs New Mexico	31.6–19.2	21%
Week 11	@ Northern Illinois	23.5–26.9	58%
Week 12	vs Hawai'i	22.8–29.0	65%
Week 13	@ UNLV	30.3–21.6	29%

Past prediction accuracy — 2026

Week	Opponent	Actual	Predicted	Margin error
Week 1	vs Western Kentucky	14–49	26.3–25.2	36.2
Week 2	vs Montana State	20–7	—	—
Week 3	@ Middle Tennessee	27–20	25.5–30.2	11.7
Week 4	vs Air Force	36–33	28.2–25.8	0.6
Week 6	@ UTEP	13–30	18.1–28.3	6.8
Week 7	@ North Dakota State	31–17	26.7–17.7	5.1