2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 11:00 PM · Fargodome
Nevada @ North Dakota State
Predicted scoreLikely
Nevada
17.7
North Dakota State
26.7
North Dakota State win probability: 73%
Margin (North Dakota State − Nevada): 8.9 (80% range -10 to 28)
Total: 44.4 (80% range 24 to 66)
Actual: Nevada 17 – North Dakota State 31 (margin error 5.1, total error 3.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:19 PM | 11.9 | 53.5 | 75% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:12 AM | 11.9 | 53.4 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:57 PM | 11.8 | 53.4 | 75% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:33 PM | 11.3 | 54.2 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:28 PM | 20.0 | 41.3 | 92% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:20 PM | 11.7 | 45.4 | 79% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:27 PM | 11.8 | 45.4 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:18 AM | 12.1 | 45.5 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:48 PM | 12.1 | 45.5 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:45 PM | 5.6 | 44.4 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:16 PM | 10.4 | 45.4 | 76% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:36 PM | 8.9 | 44.4 | 73% |